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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Falling on Stronger Dollar

The technical picture now remains confused. 

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    My previous EUR/USD signal on 23rd October was not triggered as there were no reversals when any of the key support or resistance levels were first reached.

    Today’s EUR/USD Signals

    Risk 0.75%.

    Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today. 

    Short Trade Ideas

    • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0705 or $1.0771.
    • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
    • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
    • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

    Long Trade Ideas

    • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0668, $1.0611, or $1.0592.
    •  Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
    • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
    • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

    The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

    EUR/USD Analysis

    In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I wrote that we were likely to see a continuing consolidation today, meaning that all the support and resistance levels were quite likely to hold. I was right about a general lack of direction, but I was very wrong about the levels holding.

    The technical picture now remains confused. We have seen a long-term bearish trend in this currency pair, but then we saw a strong upwards movement a few days ago as the US Dollar weakened firmly towards the end of last week, while the Euro was one of the relatively strong major currencies. This pushed the price up to the point where it can be argued that the downwards trend is over.

    After reaching a high above $1.0750 yesterday, the price has started to decline, as the US Dollar finds some renewed strength.

    It is unclear whether the support level at $1.0668 will be reached today, but it looks likely to be the day’s pivotal point. Therefore, one strategy could be to take a long scalp at any bullish bounce there and to monitor the trade carefully.

    Alternatively, if we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $1.0668, the price would have room to fall further to the next support level at $1.0611, so entering a short trade at that point might make sense.

    EUR/USD

    Concerning the USD, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking at a conference at 2:15pm London time today. There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR.  

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    Adam Lemon
    About Adam Lemon

    Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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