GBP/USD Analysis: Caution Against Profit-Taking Sales

After the recent sharp gains, the exchange rate of the British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) tends to extend its upward trend in the coming days, although the crowded schedule of economic releases in the United States may lead to fluctuations. Moreover, the upward rebound gains for the GBP/USD reached the resistance level of 1.2645, the highest for the pair in nearly 3 months. It stabilizes around the level of 1.2620 at the time of writing this analysis. Recently, the British Pound had risen by 1.14% last week, supported by some economic survey data in the UK that came in better than expected. Obviously, these data indicated growth in the UK's economy again in November, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's growth-supportive budget announcement pointed to improved economic expectations.

From a technical perspective, the gains suggest an improvement in momentum in the forex exchange rate.

brokers-we-recommend Forex Brokers We Recommend in Your Region

See full brokers list see-full-broker

GBP/USD Latest forecasts:

In this regard, W. Brad Bechtel, Forex analyst at Jefferies, says: “The continued rise in the GBP/USD pair raises it further and further above the 100-day moving average, which opens the door to a greater rise in the price of the pair.” In this regard, Sean Osborne, chief currency analyst at Scotiabank, says that expectations for the British pound are bullish, as the exchange rate achieved its highest weekly close since early September. The analyst added: “The pound’s gains have overcome the 100- and 200-day moving average over the past week or so and are supported by the bullish consensus of the oscillator indicators on the intraday, daily and weekly charts.”

Therefore, the British pound is expected to find support on minor declines (to the 1.25 area) in the short term. Clearly, it appears ready to extend its recovery from a technical point of view.

In general, the underlying outlook is heavily dependent on the United States this week, as a busy economic calendar is expected to provide more clues as to whether the economy is cooling down enough to meet expectations of US interest rate cuts in 2024. The growing expectations of such cuts have recently boosted global investor sentiment. Simultaneously, this supports the risk-friendly pound sterling and undermining the safe-haven dollar.

On Thursday, the weekly unemployment claims figure will be released, which is an event worth tracking, as investors will wonder if last week's decline was just a surprise, meaning that another surprise decline could cause some tension that supports the US dollar. On another side, personal spending growth is also scheduled to decline to 0.2% in October after the big jump of 0.7% in September. Recently, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation data is due to be released on Thursday and is likely to mirror the release of the consumer price index and show declines in both the headline and core measures to 3.1% and 3.5%, respectively.

This week also saw Fed spokespeople make their case ahead of the previous FOMC blackout period. Obviously, the highlight will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak twice on Friday.

 

On the other hand, there are no market-moving events on the UK calendar this week, except for some speeches by members of the Bank of England, which leaves the pound sterling relying on a benign global backdrop to consolidate its gains. If global stock markets continue to rise, the pound could benefit against both the euro and the dollar as it tends to be supported by positive market sentiment.

GBPUSD Expectations and Analysis Today:

The price of the GBP/USD currency pair has seen a strong recovery in the past few weeks. Along the way, it moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Furthermore, the price is about to form a bullish crossover pattern. Recently, the GBP/USD rose above the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. Also, the MACD and Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued the upward momentum. Therefore, the outlook for the British pound remains bullish, with the next reference point at 1.2840. But at the same time, it must be considered that after the recent gains, many technical indicators moved towards strong overbought levels, and sudden profit-taking sales could occur. Especially, if the results of economic data and statements of monetary policy officials are in Favor of the strength of the US dollar.

GBP/USD (Daily Chart)

Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.