- The USD/INR has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of support near the 83 Rupee level.
- The 50-Day EMA is in the same neighborhood as well, so does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a lot of trouble for sellers in this general vicinity.
- The market staying above the 50-Day EMA could open up the possibility of a move to the 84 Rupee level, but keep in mind that the Reserve Bank of India is very aggressive when it comes to stabilizing the currency pair, so at this point it looks very likely that we continue to go back and forth in this general vicinity.
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Importers continue to demand US dollars in that country, so it does help lift the currency a bit. The market breaking down from here will almost certainly attract a lot of attention all the way down to the ₹82.50 level, which is an uptrend line just waiting to be tested.
There Are a Lot of Concerns Out There
Ultimately, I think that a breakdown at this point opens up the possibility of value on and, as the US dollar will continue to attract a lot of attention due to not only importers wanting US dollars, but the fact that the US dollar is considered to be a bit of a stable currency over the rupee, and then of course we have to worry about whether or not the global economy struggles. If it does, that will have an outsized effect on India, which is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
On the upside, if we were to break above the ₹84 level, then it opens up a move to the ₹85 level, but at this point, I think it’s probably a bit much to ask to get there. I think short-term traders continue to play this market back and forth, and if you are a range-bound trader, this might be a really good pair for you at the moment. The fact that we broke so much higher earlier in the day suggests that there are a lot of concerns out there, and there is of course a lot of US dollar demand in general. I do not think this changes anytime soon.
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