The USD/ILS is trading near the 4.02050 ratio as of this writing with fast price action easy to identify. The USD/ILS trading volume is not huge and can frequently become volatile. However, the past ten days have engulfed Israel into a war that appears to have no end in sight within the near term and this is making financial institutions nervous that deal with the USD/ISL. One month ago the USD/ILS was trading near the 3.81000 ratio and in the middle of July the currency pair was near the 3.55000 mark.
Yesterday’s statement from the Bank of Israel which suggested it is considering an interest rate cut of 0.50% next week caused another momentary bout of trading volatility, but the USD/ILS as of this morning has resumed its upward pace quietly. The USD/ILS is trading at highs and behavioral sentiment certainly remains fragile. Some may think the USD/ILS is overbought, but in the short term betting on this notion may be dangerous.
Inflation in Israel Problematic for Consumers
The Israeli public has faced growing inflation in the costs of food over the past two years. The Bank of Israel’s intention of announcing an interest rate cut is likely meant to ease the higher interest rates Israelis have been paying in the wake of higher borrowing costs, but there are no guarantees this will affect the cost of necessities. However, the interest rate cut may help Israeli businesses burdened with the higher borrowing costs as they deal with the fallout from the current war footing within the nation.
Traders of the USD/ILS will have to remain cautious if they are day traders, but the trend higher in the currency pair is rather strong and while the climb is likely to come to an end at some point, the question is when. Speculators aiming for incremental moves higher should remain cautious and stay realistic regarding their expectations if they are pursuing USD/ILS bullish momentum.
Bank of Israel is Rather Proactive and Might Act against a Weaker Israel Shekel
The move over the 4.00000 is an important psychological point for the USD/ISL. The last time the currency pair traded over this level was in 2015. The Bank of Israel is known as the proactive central bank and yesterday’s hint at an interest rate cut next week is evidence they will try to protect the Israel economy.
However, cutting the interest rate of the Bank of Israel (if it happens), while the U.S. Federal Reserve seems to be ready to raise the Federal Funds Rate will make for volatile trading dynamics. Financial institutions certainly reacted yesterday as they search for equilibrium and more price action that could prove dynamic should be expected by traders.
- Traders may want to explore buying positions of the USD/ILS, but they should be aware the Bank of Israel may ‘intervene’ while trying to push the currency pair lower in the near term.
- If the USD/ILS remains above 4.00000 over the near term, this could set the table for additional moves higher as potential moves by the Bank of Israel and U.S Federal Reserve clash.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 4.02480
Current Support: 4.00100
High Target: 4.04510
Low Target: 3.98800
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