- The USD/CHF has broken above the 50-day EMA against the Swiss franc during the training session on Thursday, as it looks like we are threatening the 0.90 level.
- The 200-day EMA sets about and is more likely than not going to be the next target.
- It’s also worth noting that we are getting awfully close to wiping out a very negative candlestick from last week, and therefore if we break above the 0.90 level, that would show a significant turnaround in momentum.
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Underneath, the 50-Day EMA could be a little bit of support, but I think as long as we continue to see a lot of concerns around the world, the US dollar will attract a certain amount of attention. While the Swiss franc is also considered to be a safe currency, the reality is that the greenback not only offers safety, but it also offers higher interest rates than the Swiss franc, so that being said I think it probably is only a matter of time before we take off to the upside. After all, you do get paid to hold onto this currency pair. If we can break above the 200-day EMA, then it’s likely that the market will go looking to test the 0.92 level, which was the scene of a double top.
Eventually, We Go to the Upside
I do expect a lot of choppy and noisy behavior, but it’s worth noting that we had recently rallied from an extreme low near the 0.8650 level, which was the bottom of the overall consolidation area on the monthly chart, showing just how low we had gotten. At this point, we can break above that double top, then it’s likely that we go looking to the 0.95 level next.
In general, this is a situation where you see a lot of volatility, which I think will be the same as most currency pairs. If we do break down below the 0.89 level, it would send the US dollar much lower against the Swiss franc, showing signs of a continuation of the recent selloff, but with the geopolitical concerns that we have around the world, it does make a certain amount of sense that both of these currencies will be attractive, but with that interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, you would have to think that eventually, we go to the upside.
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