The US/JPY as of this writing is near the 147.350 ratio which is close to short and near-term highs as financial institutions continue to exhibit rather fragile behavioral sentiment. The USD/JPY is trading around values it last sincerely traded in early November of 2022. And perhaps important to note, that the USD/JPY in October of last year traded above 150.000.
The higher prices from October of 2022 are pointed out for speculators who believe the USD/JPY is overbought and will suddenly start to produce swift downward momentum. Betting on a sudden bearish wave to hit the USD/JPY under present nervous conditions in the global markets could prove to be a costly mistake in the short and near term if a speculator is overly ambitious.
The USD/JPY traded near a high of almost 147.875 on Friday of last week. Yes, the USD/JPY gapped lower on Monday and fell to a value around the 144.900 ratio late in the day, but its rather incremental climb since this low a few days ago has seen the currency pair return to the upper realms of its one-month technical chart.
Inflation Data from U.S. Coming Again Today
The U.S. will release Producer Price Index numbers today and this will certainly stir volatility within the USD/JPY. Yesterday’s inflation data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index results didn’t make the USD/JPY or the broad Forex market calm. Instead, the slightly higher inflation statistics continued to create a rather choppy USD/JPY within its higher price range.
While analysts do not believe the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates in the short or mid-term, financial institutions remain worried about the aggressive rhetoric of the U.S. central bank. Japan’s inflation numbers earlier this week came in slightly below expectations via its PPI report. It should be noted that Machine Orders and Industrial Production data from Japan published early this morning were slightly stronger. However, even with those better economic numbers the USD/JPY remains within the higher elements of its short-term chart.
A Weaker Japanese Yen is not scaring the Bank of Japan
- Speculators may believe the USD/JPY is overbought, but short-term consideration should be looked at closely via the nervous sentiment in the global markets regarding U.S inflation numbers – including the high cost of energy per the current value of WTI Crude Oil.
- It should also be noted that the weaker Japanese Yen may be helping Japan’s export businesses, which remain an important part of the economic window for the nation.
- Today’s better industrial numbers will likely be seen positively by many analysts within Japan.
- If the Producer Price Index numbers are stronger than expected today from the U.S. this could spur on an additional test higher of the USD/JPY in the near-term.
Choppy conditions in the USD/JPY should be expected over the next handful of hours. After the release of the U.S PPI data, Forex and the USD/JPY are certainly going to trade based on outlooks which will affect U.S Treasuries and have a knock-on effect for all major currency pairs.
USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 147.450
Current Support: 147.100
High Target: 147.790
Low Target: 146.750
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