This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast September 2023
For the month of September, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would gain in value.
The result so far is as follows:
Weekly Forecast 23rd September 2023
This week, I forecast that the GBP/NZD currency cross will rise in value, as it made such a large counter-trend price movement last week..
Directional volatility in the Forex market was slightly on the high last week with 41% of the most important currency pairs fluctuating over the week by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to be lower over the coming week, as there are fewer high-impact data releases scheduled than there were last week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the New Zealand Dollar, and relative weakness in the British Pound.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.
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