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Crude Oil Forecast: Defies Gravity

By Christopher Lewis
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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Both of these markets have recently seen the so-called “golden cross”, which is when the 50-Day EMA crosses above the 200-Day EMA indicator.

  • Crude oil markets have been extraordinarily bullish as of late, but unfortunately, we are starting to get to the point where they are extremely overstretched, and sooner or later gravity may come into the picture.
  • If that’s going to be the case, you may have a situation where it’s time to take profit fairly soon, that also brings up potential opportunity.

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The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be bullish again during the day, gapping higher on Tuesday before pulling back only to find more buyers. The problem of course is that we are getting a bit stretched, and this is something that you need to pay close attention to. Ultimately, I think you got a situation where you could see a bit of a pullback. That pullback more likely than not will offer a buying opportunity that people are more than willing to take advantage of. I do think that WTI Crude Oil eventually goes looking to the $90 level, but we may need to pull back toward the $85 level again to find enough buyers to jump into the picture.

Searching for the $92.50 Level

Brent markets also look a bit overdone, but they haven’t had much of a pullback during the day and they certainly look stronger. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that OPEC has more of a direct influence on this market. Ultimately, with OPEC cutting 1 million barrels per day off of the market this has had the desired effect of raising prices. It is almost a given that we will hit the $90 level in this market, as we are just below there right now. I do think that given enough time, we not only hit the $90 level, but probably go searching for the $92.50 level.

Both of these markets have recently seen the so-called “golden cross”, which is when the 50-Day EMA crosses above the 200-Day EMA indicator. Longer-term traders like this signal as a sign to continue hanging on to a position for a big move. Ultimately, that may be very well what continues, but regardless, you cannot be a seller of crude oil now as it has so obviously broken out. For what it is worth, both grades of crude oil also had previously formed bullish flags that are now being confirmed.

Brent Crude OilWTI Crude Oil

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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