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TRY/USD Forecast: Turkey Plans to Reduce Gold Imports to Reduce the Current Account Deficit

On the technical level, the dollar pair settled against the Turkish lira, near its highest levels recorded during the past week, around the level of 27.24 pounds per dollar. 

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    Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

    The risk is 0.50%.

    Best buying entry points

    • Entering a buy order pending order from the 26.50 level.
    • Place a stop loss point to close below the 26.25 level.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.50.

    Best-selling entry points

    • Entering a sell order pending order from the 27.50 level.
    • The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 27.65.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 26.50.

    The USD/TRY pair stabilized, trading near new all-time highs. The efforts of the Ministry of Finance and the Turkish Central Bank continue to work to reduce inflation and the current account deficit. Reports indicate that the Turkish government is heading to impose a quota system on the country's importsof unprocessed gold that is brought in by the precious metals brokers in the Istanbul Stock Exchange with the aim of reducing the negative impact on the size of the current account balance and strengthening foreign exchange reserves.

    It is noteworthy that imports of untreated gold have reached 19.4 billion dollars since the beginning of this year, an increase of 180% compared to the same period last year. The reports attributed this increase to the large demand of citizens to buy gold amid fears of an increasing decline in the value of the lira and the expansion of inflation. The Turkish government had imposed restrictions on gold imports during the month of February, following the earthquake that struck the south of the country. The data previously revealed that gold reserves at the Central Bank declined by about $12 billion from the highest level during last March, when gold reserves amounted to about $53.36 billion. At the present time, expectations indicate that the lira may record further decline due to the pessimistic inflation expectations issued by the Central Bank of Turkey during the past week.

    TRY/USD Technical Analysis

    On the technical level, the dollar pair settled against the Turkish lira, near its highest levels recorded during the past week, around the level of 27.24 pounds per dollar. Within a general bullish trend, at the present time, if the pair is rising, it will target the resistance levels that are concentrated at 27.50 and 28.00, respectively, but if the pair declines, it will target the support levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 26.00, respectively.

     The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame, while the pair is trading between these moving averages on the 60-minute time frame in a sign of divergence in the short term. The Turkish currency is expected to record some decline. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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    Amir Issa
    About Amir Issa
    Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.
     

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