- At the beginning of this week's trading, gold price tried to rebound to the upside, but its gains did not exceed the level of 1947 dollars an ounce, and quickly returned to its downward correction path, settling around the support level of 1932 dollars an ounce, at the time of writing the analysis.
- The price of gold returned to decline, with the rise in the price of the US dollar, which weighed on the gold market.
- Investors are bracing for US inflation figures this week, which are expected to rise for the first time in 12 months, driven by higher energy commodity prices.
According to trading, gold prices are retreating from a weekly loss of about 1.3%, but they are still up by 7.5% since the beginning of the year 2023 to date. In the same performance, silver prices, the sister commodity to gold, continued their downward trend with the beginning of this week's trading. Silver futures fell to $23.185 an ounce. All in all, the price of the white metal breached 5% last week, and prices are down 4.1% over the year.
The metals market declined on the back of higher treasury yields.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose to 102.13, from an opening of 102.02. The dollar had risen by 0.1% last week, but it is still down by 1.3% since the beginning of the year 2023 to date. Generally, a stronger profit is bad for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.
The US Treasury market was mostly in positive territory, with the 10-year yield rising 3.7 basis points to 4.099%. Yields on one-month notes rose 0.3 basis points to 5.385%, while yields on the 30-year note advanced 5.4 basis points to 4.269%.
Gold is generally sensitive to rate hikes because it affects the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
On the economic data front, the situation was relatively calm. Used car prices fell 1.6% in July and fell 11.6% year-on-year. Investors will also be watching the Fed's June consumer credit report, where economists expect a jump of $13 billion. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise this week to an annualized rate of 3.3%, up from 3% in June. Core inflation, which removes volatility in food and energy commodities, is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8%. It is unclear how much this could affect the Fed's decision-making given that the US central bank will also release inflation data for August heading into the September policy meeting.
As for other metal commodity prices, copper futures fell to $3.8285 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $925.50 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $1,231.00 an ounce.
Gold Technical Outlook
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the gold price is still on a downward correction path, and bears' control over the trend will strengthen if prices move toward the $1918 and $1900 support levels, respectively. On the other hand, and for the same time period, the bulls will not regain control of the trend without returning to the vicinity of the $1970 resistance level again.
I expect the gold price to remain in a downward correction range until the markets and investors react to the announcement of the US inflation figures, which will have a strong and direct reaction to the expectations of raising interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, and therefore on the US dollar and then the price of gold.
I still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.
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