\Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 26,850.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,200.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,200.
- Add a stop-loss at 26,860.
It is turning to be a good week for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices. The BTC/USD pair jumped to a high of 28,127, the highest level since August 17th. It has jumped by more than 10% from the lowest level this month.
Bitcoin inflows expected
Bitcoin price reacted to macro and crypto-specific news. The most important news was a decision by a US court to side with Grayscale in a long-running battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The judge ruled that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust could convert its fund into an ETF, a decision that the SEC is critical of. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that the SEC will incorporate the ruling when making its decision on other spot ETF proposals by companies like Invesco, Blackrock, and WisdomTree. That decision is expected to come later this week.
Analysts believe that a new Bitcoin ETF will lead to more inflows in the industry from large institutional investors. Most of these investors have historically avoided the industry because of the risks involved in holding the coins.
The lawsuit’s outcome is also favourable because it came a few months after the SEC lost another suit. In that lawsuit, which the SEC has appealed, a court in New York ruled that XRP was not a security.
Still, cryptocurrencies are facing substantial risks as concerns about Binance remain. There are rumours that companies like Visa and Mastercard could stop offering their services to the company.
The BTC/USD pair also rose after the US published weak jobs numbers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of vacancies in the country dropped to the lowest level in more than two years. Consumer confidence also waned in August, signaling that the Fed could decide to pause its rate hikes.
BTC/USD forecast
My last Bitcoin forecast did not work as expected. I had estimated that Bitcoin would have a bearish breakout, thanks to the bearish pennant pattern that has been forming. Instead, the pair jumped to the highest level since August 17th. As it rose, above the important resistance level at 26,858, the highest point on August 23rd.
The BTC/USD pair has also jumped above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the overbought level. Therefore, I suspect that the pair will retreat as the impact of the ETF news fade. This retreat could see it retreat to 26,588.
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