Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6550.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6425.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6435 and a take-profit at 0.6380.
- Add a take-profit at 0.6525.
The AUD/USD exchange rate drifted upwards on Tuesday after the latest American consumer confidence data. It rose to a high of 0.6466 as traders refocused on the upcoming US GDP, pending home sales, and ADP jobs data.
US GDP and ADP jobs data ahead
The AUD/USD pair will react to the important economic data from the United States. The most important report will come from ADP, the giant payment processing company. It will publish the latest nonfarm employment change data.
Economists expect the data to show that the American private sector created 195k jobs in August, a sharp decline from the previous 324k. If analysts are accurate, the data will confirm that the labor market is slowing.
Data published on Tuesday showed that the country’s job openings dropped to 8.8 million in July from the previous 9.2 million in June. That was the lowest level that openings have been at since 2021.
The US also released relatively weak consumer confidence data. According to the Conference Board, the country’s consumer confidence dropped to 106.1 in August from the previous 117.
Taken together, these numbers mean that the Federal Reserve could pause its interest rate hikes in its September meeting.
The other important data that will move the AUD/USD pair will be the latest US GDP data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 2.4% in the second quarter after growing by 2.0% in Q1.
There is a likelihood that the economic growth continued in Q3, with the Atlanta Fed estimating that it is growing by 6%.
The US will release the pending home sales numbers. Analysts expect the data to reveal that sales dropped by 0.1% in July.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD exchange rate’s sell-off found a strong support at 0.6376 this month. It then bounced back and is now approaching the crucial resistance point at 0.6487 (August 24th).
The pair’s 25-period and 50-period moving averages have made a bullish crossover. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the key level at 60. Therefore, more upside will only be confirmed if the price moves above the resistance point at 0.6487. A move above this level will see it rise to the next psychological level at 0.6500.
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