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USD/TRY: Incremental Steps as Speculative Landscape Changes

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The USD/TRY has delivered a slight incremental move higher in recent trading, but the dynamics of the currency pair have shifted for speculators.

The USD/TRY is trading near the 26.14100 ratio as of this writing. The price of the USD/TRY touched a high yesterday of nearly 26.17000 yesterday and showed that upwards momentum remains a part of the currency’s pairs trading landscape.

However a rather fascinating development has taken place in the USD/TRY since the last week of June, the range of the USD/TRY has grown significantly tighter. The almost consolidated like mannerisms of the USD/TRY have changed the way speculators need to consider the Forex pair’s trading opportunities.

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TheTurkish government has shown a desire to create a more businesslike attitude and has made changes to its leadership regarding central bank mechanics. The USD/TRY has grown more stable and while the currency pair has shown a tendency to inch higher, it has also shown ability to trade with seemingly normal results. Meaning resistance levels are now causing rather opportunistic reversals lower, which might be able to be taken advantage of by traders who have the courage to trade the USD/TRY with selling positions.

USD/TRY Speculative Wagers Offering an Opportunity to Seek Price Action Lower

It is unlikely the USD/TRY is going to start suddenly selling off in a sustained manner, but the ability to move slowly higher and then produce a move lower towards technical support offers a chance to speculators to wager on lower values. Price velocity within the USD/TRY lower is showing a rather intriguing dynamic in which the moves lower are rather strong.

If short-term resistance for example near the 26.15000 to 26.17000 continues to be sustained, looking for lower moves which challenge resistance might prove to be a legitimate bet. The USD/TRY remains a place where only experienced traders should venture. Because of the changing landscape regarding its rather profound consolidated range which has recently emerged, the currency pair needs a new trading perspective.

Quick hitting trades can be tried using entry orders with take profit and stop loss tactics. Traders should check with their brokers regarding any ‘unknown’ fees which may lurk regarding the trading of the USD/TRY, because the past month of results may have created the need for brokers to re-think the way they allow traders to wager on the USD/TRY. Traders should ask their brokers questions before betting blindly on the USD/TRY about all requirements and fees.

U.S Inflation Data Once Again Today via the PPI

  • The U.S will release Producer Price Index numbers today; the inflation report will stir Forex including the USD/TRY.
  • Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index results surprised the Forex market and today’s PPI data could cause additional nervousness to grow regarding what the Federal Reserve will do on the 26th of July.
  • The USD/TRY will react to the PPI report today.

Turkish Lira Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 26.17100

Current Support: 26.08500

High Target: 26.18400

Low Target: 26.06250

USDTRY

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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