- At the beginning of this week's trading, gold futures declined, as investors kept their eyes on the US monetary policy meeting this week.
- The yellow metal was also pressured by the rise of the US dollar. However, investors believe that the price of the yellow metal will probably trade in the $1950 range this year as it fails to sustain any momentum.
- With the beginning of trading, gold prices fell to the $1954 support level, which is stable around it at the time of writing the analysis.
All in all, gold prices started posting tepid weekly gains, but are still up 7% YTD. In the same performance, silver prices, the sister commodity to gold, fell below the level of $25 an ounce. All in all, the price of the white metal fell more than 2% last week but remained up 1.5% for the year.
All in all, while a quarter-point rate hike was achieved at the July FOMC meeting this week, investors are waiting to see how the US central bank communicates about the September policy meeting. The Fed decided to raise US interest rates twice more this year, but with the inflation rate in June falling to 3%, some investors think the institution may only pull the trigger on a 25 basis point increase.
The gold market is usually sensitive to movements in interest rates because it affects the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Another factor affecting the gold market. As US Treasury yields rose, the benchmark yield for ten-year bonds rose 1.8 basis points to 3.857%. The two-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.898%, while the 30-year note increased 1.1 basis points to 3.918%.
On the economic data front, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) deepened into a recessionary phase, printing at 49 in July. While this is higher than a reading of 46.3 in June and better than expected by 46.2, the reading has been stuck in contraction territory for eight of the past nine months. In addition, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index worsened to -0.32 in June, down from -0.28.
A stronger series affected the yellow metal, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose to 101.36, from an opening of 101.07. The index recorded gains of 1.5% last week, to reduce its loss since the beginning of the year 2023 to date to about 2%.
The rise in the price of the dollar is detrimental to commodities priced in dollars because it increases the cost of buying them for foreign investors.
In other metals markets, copper futures rose to $3,848 a pound. Platinum futures fell to $967.80 an ounce. Palladium futures fell to $1,269.50 an ounce.
Gold Technical Analysis
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the XAU/USD price is subject to a downward correction, and the bears' control over the trend may strengthen in the event of a move toward the support levels at 1932 and 1920 dollars, respectively, and breaking the support 1900 dollars is confirmation of the general trend turning bearish over that period.
On the other hand, and for the same period of time, as I mentioned before, the resistance levels of 1972 and 1985 dollars will remain the most important to rule the bulls and restore expectations for the future of the psychological resistance of 2000 dollars again. The price of gold may remain under the current pressure until the reaction to the announcements of global central banks this week.
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