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Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
The GBP/USD reacted mildly to the latest UK services PMI numbers and minutes by the Federal Reserve. Sterling was trading at 1.2700 against the US dollar, where it has been stuck at throughout the week.
Hard landing for the UK
The Federal Reserve published minutes of the last meeting on Wednesday. In that meeting, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged for the first time in ten meetings. It also reiterated that inflation remained significantly high and that more rate hikes will come.
These minutes provided more color about the meeting and what to expect. All FOMC members wrote that more rate hikes were coming, albeit at a slower pace. As a result, investors anticipate at least two more rate increases this year.
At the same time, the Fed believes that the US is facing major headwinds as credit tightens, interest rates rise, and inflation remains sticky.
The GBP/USD pair also reacted to a warning by JP Morgan about the UK economy. In a report, the bank’s analysts warned that the UK economy could go through a hard landing in the coming months. It also warned that interest rates will likely rise to 7%, the highest level in decades.
There are concerns that this hard landing is still here. For example, bond yields have jumped as investors anticipate higher rates. On Wednesday, the government paid the highest borrowing cost on two-year gilts. The two-year yield jumped to 5.66%, the highest level in two years.
The GBP/USD pair will next react to the upcoming US jobs numbers. ADP will publish its estimate of the private payrolls numbers later today. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the number of vacancies. These numbers will come a day ahead of the official non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD price drifted downwards after the Fed minutes. It was trading at the psychologically important level of 1.2700, a few points below this week’s high of 1.2735. The pair have entered the Ichimoku cloud indicator. It is also hovering at the 50-period exponential moving average.
The pair has moved below the second support of the Schiff pitchfork and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the outlook of the pair is neutral with a bearish bias. If this happens, the support level to watch is at 1.2650.
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