- Since the start of this week's trading, the price of the EUR/USD currency pair has been moving in very narrow ranges, with a strong bearish tendency.
- This is affecting the support level 1.0668, before settling around 1.0711 at the time of writing the analysis.
- The recent US job numbers were highly motivating for the US dollar against other major currencies.
- The dollar may remain in its position until the reaction to US inflation numbers next week, which will determine the fate of the next US interest rate decision.
The European Central Bank is not done with increasing borrowing costs as core inflation has proven stubborn, said ECB Executive Council member Isabel Schnabel. “We have more ground to cover,” she was quoted as saying. “It will depend on the data coming in by how much the rates increase.” Speaking a week before European Central Bank officials meet in Frankfurt to outline their next move, Schnabel highlighted that core inflation - which excludes volatile items such as food and energy - "is more stable and remains high, with services playing a key role due to the strong influence of wage costs on inflation." in these sectors.”
The ECB has already raised interest rates by 375 basis points since July, and officials are expected to make two more quarter-point hikes this month and next. Some policymakers also suggest that further action may be needed in September. "The peak of core inflation will not be enough to declare victory: we need to see convincing evidence that inflation is returning to our 2% target in a timely and sustainable way," she added. “We are not there yet.”
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Economic Outlook
German industrial production grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, raising the odds of another economic contraction in the second quarter. Data from German statistics agency Destatis on Wednesday showed that German industrial output rose 0.3 percent month on month, reversing a 2.1 percent drop in March. The growth rate was well below the expected 0.6%. On a yearly basis, German industrial production rose just 1.6 percent, slower than the 2.3 percent rise a month earlier.
Euro predictions against the dollar today:
There is no change in my technical view of the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair, as the trend is still bearish. Stability below the psychological support 1.0700 will motivate the continuation of the strength of the bears and anticipation to test stronger support levels. The closest to them after that 1.0650 and 1.0590, respectively, which is sufficient to push the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels.
On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the bulls will not control the direction of the EUR/USD pair without moving towards the resistance levels 1.0880 and 1.1000, respectively. Today, the currency pair will be affected by the announcement of the economic growth reading for the Eurozone, and then the announcement of the number of jobless claims in the US.
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