- During the Friday trading session, the AUD/USD rallied noticeably, exceeding the 0.66 level quickly. Despite this positive movement, the market is expected to witness considerable turbulence in this region, particularly as the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average is trending downwards.
- This downward momentum implies some degree of technical resistance, potentially causing a significant level of fluctuation over time.
- Should the Australian dollar fall below the 0.66 level again, it would likely signal the trading community's continued preference for US dollars, despite the recent uptick.
Recently, the Aussie had plummeted below the lower limit of a significant consolidation region. Therefore, a retest of this area comes as no surprise. However, reversing the current trend would require a considerable upswing, with the bare minimum target being the 200-Day EMA. While the possibility of reaching the upper limit of the previous consolidation area at 0.68 exists, such a move would require an exceptionally bullish rally. At that juncture, a major shift in overall market sentiment would be necessary. At this point, it doesn’t seem very likely that it happens, especially with yields in America so high.
Pay Attention to Your Position Sizing
On crossing back down below the 0.66 level, shorting the market would be my strategy, as it would indicate a failure of the current rally. Subsequently, I would foresee a move towards the 0.65 level, with the ultimate target still at the 0.64 level. This latter level represents the "measured move" resulting from the breakdown out of the consolidation region. As such, it seems likely that we will eventually reach this point but achieving it will necessitate a significant degree of patience due to the market's propensity to flip between various narratives. Because of this, your position sizing is something that you need to pay very close attention to.
Imagining a scenario where we suddenly witness an economic boom, leading to a long-term stabilization in the commodities market—both prerequisites for the Aussie to rally—appears challenging at present. Considering the ever-changing market narratives, these conditions seem difficult to materialize in the short term. Therefore, while the Australian dollar's recent rally is noteworthy, understanding and navigating the potential turbulence and volatility in this region is of paramount importance for traders and investors alike. It remains essential to stay abreast of market developments and adapt strategies accordingly to navigate these uncertain times effectively.
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