The interest rate differential remains in favor of the US dollar, suggesting a continuation of the current trend.
- The USD/JPY initially experienced a minor retreat during Thursday's trading session, only to rebound and exhibit renewed strength.
- Currently, the key level of ¥138 is being tested, and a breakout above this level could potentially trigger a significant upward move, akin to releasing a beach ball held underwater.
- Breaking through this level would signify the market's ability to overcome substantial selling pressure, likely leading to a surge in trading driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO).
On the downside, the ¥135 level holds significant support, especially considering the imminent approach of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which provides additional reinforcement. Given the prevailing noise in the market and the influential role of interest rates, continued volatility can be expected. However, buying the dip appeals to many participants, as it presents an opportunity to capitalize on perceived value.
The interest rate differential remains in favor of the US dollar, suggesting a continuation of the current trend. This is particularly relevant if traders increasingly flock to the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. The market appears poised for a breakout, and once it occurs, it is likely to be a substantial move. Selling the US dollar in the foreseeable future holds little appeal, as market sentiment aligns with buying the currency. The Bank of Japan's commitment to quantitative easing, coupled with the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy, supports the ongoing upward grind of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Consequently, if resistance is decisively breached, it could trigger a widespread selling of the yen.
The Dollar is Displaying Resilience
Ultimately, the US dollar has displayed resilience and is on the verge of a potential breakout against the Japanese yen. The ¥138 level is currently under threat, and a successful breakout would have significant implications for the market. Traders should anticipate a surge in FOMO-driven trading. On the downside, the ¥135 level acts as crucial support, reinforced by the imminent approach of the 50-Day EMA. Interest rate differentials favor the US dollar, supporting its strength. The prevailing market sentiment leans towards buying opportunities, with participants seeking value. The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing stance and the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy reinforce the upward momentum of the US dollar. Once resistance is overcome, a substantial move may ensue, potentially leading to widespread yen selling.
Potential signal: Now that the USD/JPY is breaking above the 138 level, I am going long, with a stop at 137.00, and targeting a move to 140.