The USD/JPY began Friday's trading session with a decline but quickly found support, attracting eager traders looking to join the upward momentum. The currency is currently testing the crucial ¥140 level, and a clear breakthrough could signal a resumption of the longer-term trend. With the recent breakout from the ascending triangle pattern, the move to the upside has become impulsive, although occasional pullbacks should be expected. These pullbacks may present favorable buying opportunities, with the ¥138 level serving as a significant area of support due to its role as the top of the previously broken ascending triangle.
Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan's commitment to its yield curve control policy and the Federal Reserve's tight monetary stance are likely to maintain the current market dynamics. In fact, bets on the Federal Reserve's continued tightening have led to recent increases in Fed Funds Futures. If this scenario materializes, the interest rate differential alone will almost certainly drive this currency pair higher. Ultimately, the Japanese authorities will have to decide whether they will fight against higher interest rates or defend their currency.
Avoid Shorting This Pair
- Some market analysts are even suggesting that this pair could reach the ¥200 level in the future. While this projection may sound extreme, considering the rapid pace of last year's price movements, it becomes apparent how quickly the market dynamics can drive prices higher.
- If the Federal Reserve reaffirms its tight monetary policy stance and the market responds accordingly, it could spark one of the most explosive moves of the year.
- However, irrespective of the specific outcome, the measured move of the previously mentioned ascending triangle indicates a target of ¥148, serving as a reference for a larger swing trade. Given the current fundamentals, there seems to be little reason to consider shorting this pair in the near term.
In the end, the US dollar encountered initial weakness but found support, setting the stage for further potential gains. The currency is currently testing the critical ¥140 level, with a successful breakthrough suggesting a resumption of the longer-term uptrend. While occasional pullbacks can be expected, they may present buying opportunities, with the ¥138 level serving as a key support area. The Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy and the Federal Reserve's tight monetary stance will continue to shape market momentum.
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