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Silver Forecast: XAG/USD Continues to Look for Momentum

The overall sentiment has turned negative due to concerns about industrial demand for silver.

  • The Silver market experienced a significant decline on Wednesday as initially, the US dollar emerged as the default winner in early trading hours.
  • However, releasing weak US and European PMI numbers in the previous 24 hours quickly turned the tide, introducing further uncertainty into the market.
  • Remember, silver is not only a precious metal, but an industrial one as well.

The Collapse in Industrial Demand Will Affect Silver Prices

The focus now shifts to testing the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average, situated just below the $23 level. Additionally, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a potential support level. While there may be some underlying support, market sentiment has turned considerably more negative than a few weeks ago. As a result, the market will likely exhibit further volatility as it navigates between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA indicators, which continue to exert a significant influence.

A primary concern for silver is the potential collapse in industrial demand. In such a scenario, silver is likely to underperform gold. While both metals serve as stores of wealth, silver's inherent volatility makes gold the preferred choice for wealth preservation. Consequently, during periods of decline in precious metals, silver tends to experience more rapid and severe falls than gold. The negative candlestick formation observed on Tuesday indicates that downward pressure on silver will likely persist. However, it is crucial to monitor short-term charts for signs of exhaustion. Special attention should be paid to the behavior around the 200-Day EMA when the market reaches that level. Conversely, if the 50-Day EMA is breached, it could generate significant upward momentum. In the end, this will be the most important signal that I will be watching for if we see buyers return.

At the end of the day, silver faced significant downward pressure due to disappointing PMI numbers on Tuesday, and lackluster action on Wednesday. Although the US dollar briefly benefited as a safe-haven asset, the market quickly reversed. The testing of the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average and the potential support from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level are key areas to watch. However, the overall sentiment has turned negative due to concerns about industrial demand for silver. It is also worth noting that the market has at least stabilized, so it is likely that we will at least attempt to reach higher. However, the market breaking that 200-Day EMA will send silver markets lower.

XAG/USD chart

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.


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