The NASDAQ 100 has been somewhat tight during the entirety of April, but as we head into May, it looks like the buyers willing to come in and buy every significant debt. Because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see the NASDAQ 100 take off to the upside, despite the fact that there’s almost no fundamental reason for it doing so.
- It appears like the only thing that matters is liquidity, and people are looking for that next big push.
- The Federal Reserve is more likely than not going to continue to see reasons to fight inflation, and Wall Street will continue to find reasons to fight the Fed.
- It seems as if the Wall Street bankers cannot get beyond the idea that there’s a world outside of the East River, and therefore they will continue to look beyond the real economy. Eventually, they cannot ignore the overall economy, especially since the Federal Reserve remains steadfast in its desire to fight inflation.
- The next Federal Reserve meeting will probably be very telling. While they may have to stop raising interest rates, they are nowhere near pivoting, despite the fact that Wall Street believes that is the next move.
The question of course is “When do they realize it?”
If we break down below the 12,500 level, then we could drop down to the 12,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Break it down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to 11,600 where the 200-Week EMA currently resides. On the other hand, if we continue to ignore fundamental reality, we could make a move toward the 13,800 level, which is where we had seen selling previously. If we break above there, then the 14,000 level after that could be a potential target as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
Currently, I think the best case scenario is that we grind back and forth in a range, especially as a lot of traders simply walk away from the market in May, as we start to head into the summer time. I don’t expect to see an explosive move to the upside, but if we break above 14,000 above, then there’s really nothing you can do but follow the momentum.