US Dollar gaining across the board.
My previous EUR/USD signal on 22nd May was not triggered, as none of the key levels which I had identified were reached during that day’s London session.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short trade entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0796.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long trade entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0707 or $1.0690.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I wrote that the technical picture was bearish as the US Dollar was strong and the Euro was weaker than the British Pound. I thought that the price would try to rise that day, but I thought the cluster of nearby resistance levels would prevent that, so I saw the best options as a short trade from a bearish rejection of $1.0835.
This was a good call, although unfortunately, the price did not quite reach $1.0835, but it got close to it, before falling. The price is now approximately 100 pips lower.
We continue to see a very strong US Dollar and a weak Euro, with clear bearish momentum, so the picture still looks very bearish. The Dollar is getting a boost from increasing expectations of a Fed rate hike in June, despite the US debt ceiling crisis.
I think the price is likely to reach the support level at $1.0707 today, which may be strong as it is confluent with the round number at $1.0700 and reinforced by another key support level just below that at $1.0690. I doubt the price will get established below $1.0690, so scalpers may have an opportunity in that price area on the long side.
Overall, I see the best trade opportunity which might set up here today to be a short trade from the resistance level at $1.0796, but I think this is unlikely to set up. Therefore, it might be a better idea to trade other currency pairs today, maybe the USD/JPY currency pair which keeps reaching new 5-month highs and shows quite a high relative level of volatility.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Prelimary GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR.
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