The AUD/USD currency pair initially experienced a decline in Tuesday's trading session but later demonstrated resilience and fought back. Currently, it appears that the Aussie dollar is inclined to test the 0.66 level, at least in the short term. It is important to note that 0.66 marks the bottom of a significant consolidation area, carrying substantial "market memory."
"Sell the Rally" Scenario
For now, I am awaiting signs of a potential bounce and exhaustion, which would present an opportunity to initiate short positions. The 0.65 level below should provide support, as it represents a large, round, psychologically significant figure and has previously acted as a bounce point. However, considering the "measured move" of the recent consolidation period, a decline to the 0.64 level seems quite plausible over time. Nevertheless, it is crucial to remember that markets rarely sustain a unidirectional trend for an extended period.
My focus currently lies in identifying signs of exhaustion to resume selling positions without hesitation. I believe there is a higher likelihood of a retest of the 0.66 level followed by a failure. Even if a break above that level were to occur, I would only consider entering long positions after clearing the 50-Day EMA, especially given the recent volatility in commodity markets.
In essence, this market presents a "sell the rally" scenario, emphasizing the importance of exercising patience. A breakdown below the 0.65 level would likely open the door for the market to fulfill the measured move down to the 0.64 level. On the other hand, a break above the 50-Day EMA could lead to a potential move towards the 200-Day EMA, situated just below the 0.68 level. The 200-Day EMA serves as a significant Forex technical indicator that many market participants rely on to determine the prevailing trend.
The Australian dollar initially faced a decline but demonstrated resilience in Tuesday's trading session. The market appears inclined to test the 0.66 level, which holds significance as the bottom of a major consolidation area. It is crucial to remain vigilant for signs of exhaustion as opportunities to initiate selling positions arise. The 0.65 level is anticipated to provide support, but a measured move suggests the possibility of a decline towards the 0.64 level over time. Selling rallies is the preferred approach, and patience is key. A break below 0.65 may lead to a retest of 0.66, while surpassing the 50-Day EMA could pave the way for a move towards the 200-Day EMA near the 0.68 level, an essential trend indicator.
Potential AUD/USD Signal
- If the Aussie gets close to the 0.6550 level, I will be selling.
- I will aim for the 0.64 level, with a stop loss just above the 0.6610 level.
- I have no interest in buying.
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