Every speculator wants a sure thing. Every day trader wants to be able to look at a long-term technical chart and know the direction of an asset’s trend. The USD/TRY exchange rate certainly has proven to be one of the major currency pairs which have delivered a seemingly one way ride higher the past few years. However, it will come as no surprise to readers that what I am about to write should be considered a warning and not a welcoming sign.
As of this morning’s price action the USD/TRY is trading near the 19.25400 ratio, yesterday’s low briefly touched the 19.16050 ratio. Yesterday’s high however was within the vicinity of today’s trading action so far. Yes, the trend of the USD/TRY is upwards, but the movement occurs with sudden gyrations and traders do not have many insights regarding the exact timing of moves to come.
The U.S Federal Reserve is being anticipated to become less hawkish by many financial institutions and the USD has become weaker within most major currency pairs, this however has not been the case with the USD/TRY. The bullish trend higher in the USD/TRY will likely continue. Although the speed of the currency pair upwards has proven to be a crawl sometimes, the momentum is unmistakable via technical charts.
Long-Term Trend doesn’t mean you can expect to Trade the USD/TRY Quickly
While the USD/TRY is a major currency pair, its trading volumes remain rather thin much of the time. Traders can take a look at long-term charts and see the trend which is obviously bullish, but predicting the exact time of moves higher remains difficult.
This means day traders who are pursuing the USD/TRY with buying positions based on technical trends and fundamental observations are still hard pressed to profit from the currency pair. This because if you want to make a quick hitting trade in the USD/TRY, you will often find that it is difficult to get in and out of a trade with your chosen price orders in a timely fashion, meaning overnight charges can start to become a factor.
Risk Taking Tactics Always Need to be used with the USD/TRY
And here is an important warning, if you want to trade the USD/TRY and you are a day trader you need to use a price order, otherwise you can expect to get ‘filled’ with a price that you did not expect and one that can prove very expensive. Entry price points, stop losses and take profit targets are always needed when wagering on the USD/TRY.
- The USD/TRY has climbed incrementally and will likely continue to sustain its pace upwards.
- However, traders need to keep all of the potential transaction costs in mind when trading the USD/TRY.
- Traders should be conservative with leverage and know the USD/TRY can deliver sudden unexpected spikes that can be costly.
Traders should be aware that the USD/TRY also often produces violent moves downwards which frequently have greater price velocity than the moves higher. Meaning the moves lower can actually produce greater profit if a selling position is being speculated on and hits its take profit target. While the moves higher certainly always seem to come incrementally, the moves lower in the USD/TRY often occur unexpectedly. The USD/TRY is a bit like betting on a slot machine if risk taking tactics are not being fully implemented and understood. The currency pair remains a place where only experienced traders should explore.
Turkish Lira Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.26350
Current Support: 19.23200
High Target: 19.27165
Low Target: 19.19400
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