Natural Gas Forecast: Natural Gas Attempts a Small Recovery

• Natural gas markets have rallied during Tuesday's session as the $2.00 level continues to offer support.
• While it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, whether or not it holds over the longer term is a completely different question.
• Additionally, it is historically the bottom of the summer range, and the market seems to be settling into that area.

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Natural Gas Settling Into Summer Range

If the market were to break down below the $2.00 level, it is highly likely that it could drop down to the $1.80 level, an area that has seen a lot of noise in the past. On the upside, the $3.00 level is the top of the overall range that the market tends to have during warm months. Therefore, it makes sense that this area would offer a bit of a lid for the market. Between here and there, the 50-Day EMA is hovering around the $2.66 level, which could cause a little bit of resistance. Overall, the market seems to be trying to figure out its range for the next few months, and a bit of a rally makes sense. However, it is highly unlikely that the market can maintain significant momentum to the upside.

The longer-term trend suggests that if the market experiences a bit of a bounce from here, it will likely offer a selling opportunity sooner or later. Signs of exhaustion will be jumped upon, following the longer-term trend overall. The market has been in a downtrend for quite some time, so it is best to think of it as a market to sell, not one to try to pick the bottom anytime soon. The market is likely to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, but traders should look for signs of exhaustion that they can start selling, as it is highly likely that downward pressure will increase again in the future.

Ultimately, the natural gas market seems to be settling into the bottom of the summer range, with the $2.00 level offering support. However, it is uncertain whether or not this level will hold over the longer term. The $3.00 level is the top of the overall range, and the market is likely to experience some resistance around the 50-Day EMA level. The longer-term trend suggests that traders should sell rather than try to pick the bottom, and traders should look for signs of exhaustion that they can start selling. The market is likely to continue experiencing choppy behavior, but downward pressure will likely increase again in the future.

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