The USD/JPY is trading near the 133.180 ratios as of this writing. The currency pair has traded lower the past few days and maintained its trend in the face of global concerns regarding U.S. regional banking, and the problems surrounding Credit Suisse and potential exposures. The additional question of what chosen direction the U.S. Federal Reserve will take next week regarding monetary policy has also been a definite factor in the direction of the USD/JPY.
The aggressive selloff of the USD/JPY highlights that financial institutions believe the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next week. The math regarding the value of the USD/JPY and its downturn from a high of nearly 137.900 last week on Wednesday highlights the change in behavioral sentiment which has taken place.
Because of the U.S. and European banking weakness within corporate share values and the state of their balance sheets, the U.S central bank is clearly under pressure to pause its aggressive monetary policy stance near-term. There are no guarantees that will happen, but if the Fed hikes the Federal Funds Rate next week it would definitely cause chaos in the global marketplace, and it is a safe bet there is no taste among U.S government officials to cause more financial pain.
Support Levels of the USD/JPY are Attractive Speculatively
Traders certainly need to be careful taking into consideration the state of the global financial community for the moment. A vast sea of nervousness exists and developing news could provide many more surprises before the week concludes. However, from a speculative point of view the bearish trend in the USD/JPY is attractive, and the potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve being forced to admit it is in no position to raise borrowing costs could cause more selling within the USD/JPY. A test of February's lower values may be the target for speculators, but traders need to be careful and not overly ambitious.
USD/JPY Price Velocity could Rise in the Coming Days
If the USD/JPY begins to challenge the 132.800 to 132.700 juncture in the short term, this may be a signal additional selling could erupt and cause another test of lows seen earlier today and yesterday. If support levels are penetrated lower, speculators could not be faulted for pursuing targets near the 132.500 to 132.300 ratios.
- Conditions in Forex and the USD/JPY remain nervous and traders must use full risk management today and tomorrow.
- The trend lower in the USD/JPY is attractive from a betting viewpoint, but narrow take-profit goals may prove wise if they are cashed out with winnings, instead of letting them disappear when cyclical market reversals occur.
USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 133.375
Current Support: 132.780
High Target: 133.910
Low Target: 132.210
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