- The USD/CHF has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see US dollar weakness in general.
- Ultimately, the market should continue to see a certain amount of interest in the area underneath, especially if we get closer to the 0.90 level.
- That’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where a lot of people will be paying close attention to price action.
- In fact, it looks as if it is a support zone that extends from 0.90 all the way up to the 0.91 level.
The 50-Day EMA is presently at the 0.93 level, so that should be thought of as potential resistance, and therefore it’s likely that any move towards that area could run into significant resistance. Above there, we have the 200-Day EMA which sits just above the 0.94 level as well. However, we could see a significant shift in attitude if we continue to see problems with the Swiss banking sector. Right now, it appears that things are stable, but if we get more negativity out of that part of the world, that could be a major reversal just waiting to happen.
US Dollar Could Go Back to the Parity Level
Furthermore, the 0.90 level underneath is a major support level going back quite some time, so if we are going to see a turnaround in general, this would be basically where we would see it. If we did it break down below the 0.90 level, then it’s likely that the market could drop to the 0.88 level, followed by the 0.85 level. Keep in mind this pair does tend to move slowly at times, so it’s not a huge surprise that we are essentially grinding back and forth overall. However, once we finally do break below the major support level, then we could see momentum picked back up.
Having said that, the same thing works and the opposite direction, and if we take out the 200-Day EMA eventually, that opens up the possibility of the US dollar going back to the parity level. In fact, we have been bouncing around between parity and 0.90 for quite some time, going back several years. If we are going to see a recovery, this is the perfect space to see it happen, but we just don’t have the price action quite yet.
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