The EUR/USD initially shot higher during the week, bolstered by the post FOMC reaction, as traders decided that the Federal Reserve may start to slow down. Quite frankly, that has been beaten back, now we have formed a massive shooting star in the weekly chart. This suggests to me that any time the Euro starts to rally a bit, you will more likely be rewarded for finding some type of exhaustion that you can sell into. The 1.05 level underneath is a hard floor, but if we were to break down below there it could open up the floodgates.
Gold markets have fallen quite drastically during the trading week, only to turn around and form a huge hammer. The hammer of course is pressing against the major resistance barrier in the form of $2000 or so, but if we can break above the top of the candlestick, it’s likely that we could go looking toward the $2100 level. That being said, if the market were to break down below the bottom of the cancer, that ends up being a “hanging man”, which opens up selling pressure, perhaps allowing gold to drop down to the $1900 level.
The GBP/USD initially tried to rally during the course of the trading week but got repudiated every time it tried to rally. By the time we got to the end of the week, it is obvious that exhaustion will continue to be the best way to play this market, shorting the British pound if it does rally. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, that is possible that we could go down to the 1.20 level, an area that I do think it’s quite supportive. On the other hand, if we break above the 1.25 level, that would obviously be a very bullish sign, opening up a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of possibility.
The USD/JPY initially tried to rally during the week, breaking above the 50-Week EMA. However, we have turned around to show signs of exhaustion, and now it looks like the market is ready to go down to the ¥130.50 level. We have turned around to show signs of life, and now it looks like we are ready to turn around and try to go higher. However, keep in mind that the market is highly sensitive to the overall attitude of bond markets, as the Bank of Japan continues to work against the interest rate markets breaking above the 50 basis points level. If we do break above the top of the candlestick, it’s likely that the US dollar could go to the ¥138 level.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market went back and forth during the course of the week, rallying all the way to the 200-Week EMA, before showing signs of exhaustion. If the market breaks down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that WTI (US oil) will drop down to the $60 level rather quickly. All things being equal, this is a market that should continue to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior, before possibly falling if we continue to see a lot of economic slowdown symptoms out there, perhaps driving down demand going forward. However, if we could turn around and break above the $80 level, then the market would enter a new phase, but right now I don’t think we are anywhere near there. Short-term rallies will more likely be sold into.
The USD/CAD has gone back and forth during the trading week as we continue to see the 1.38 level offer resistance. If the market can break above there, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 1.40 level, an area that previously had been important. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.34 level. The 50-Week EMA sits underneath there and it looks as if we are trying to reach the 1.34 level as well. We are forming a huge “W pattern”, which typically means that we will eventually break out, and if oil continues to soften, that might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
The AUD/USD initially tried to rally during the week but continues to fight a lot of noise between the 0.67 level and the 0.68 level. Because of this, it does make a certain amount of sense that we pulled back, and now it looks like we are ready to go down to the 0.65 level, which is an area that has been a support level recently, but if we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that the Aussie could drop down to the 0.63 level. On the other hand, if we can break above the 0.68 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 0.70 level. Either way, it’s going to be very noisy.
The NASDAQ 100 has initially rally during the week but struggled at the same area that we have multiple times in the past, the 12,950 level. Ultimately, the fact that we pull back to there does suggest that the very least that NASDAQ 100 traders are not quite ready to push this market to the upside, so I think it’s more likely than not we continue to trade in more of a sideways market with plenty of choppiness and volatility as there is so much in the way of economic uncertainty.