Natural Gas Technical Analysis: The Price has Deepened its Losses

Technically, the price continues its decline amid complete control of the main bearish trend in the medium term along a trend line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). 

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) fell during their early trading on Tuesday, to record slight daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -0.54%. It settled at a price of $2.226 per million British thermal units, after declining during yesterday’s trading by  -4.44%.

Natural gas futures rose early on Monday, with bulls seizing on favorable near-term weather, steady export demand and market expectations to draw more from inventories. Rising jitters in the global financial system finally capped this positive momentum and left futures in the doldrums.

Nymex gas futures for April were flat at $2.223 per million British thermal units, down 11.5 cents on the day, and the May contract was down by 11.5 cents, closing at $2,331.

NatGasWeather said U.S. and European weather models agreed on the timing of fluctuations in national natural gas demand in the next two weeks. Strong demand will open the week after frosty weather systems swept the country over the weekend, and the company said this supported price early on.

What will be watched closely this week, analysts say, is whether US production remains below 100 bcfd. If Freeport LNG export flows increase to 2 bcfd, either of which will help tighten the balance.

The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas that was shut down last summer after a sudden fire made great strides this month in its restart efforts, adding nearly 1 bcfd to the demand equation. At full capacity, it can draw 2.38 billion cubic feet per day from domestic supplies.

Technical Outlook:

  • Technically, the price continues its decline amid complete control of the main bearish trend in the medium term along a trend line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily).
  • Negative pressure continued for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period.
  • In addition to that, we notice the continued influx of signals of the negativity of the relative strength indicators, despite reaching oversold areas.

Therefore, our expectations remain the same for a further decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially as long as it stabilizes below the resistance level of 2.748, to target the psychological support level of 2.00.

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Akram Adel
Akram has experience working in the Forex industry since 2008. He works as a trainer and lecturer for technical analysis, trading strategies, and foundations of risk and capital management. In addition, he has experience with topics in the financial markets on many well-known sites that specialize in this field. Akram currently writes for a number of sites by providing accurate and professional articles and daily reports.