The GBP/JPY has been struggling to maintain gains during Thursday's trading session, as the currency dips below the ¥160 level against the Japanese yen. This follows a significant plunge in the Wednesday session, suggesting a potential continuation of the pound's downward trajectory.
Should the pound continue to weaken and break below the ¥159 level, it could trigger a drop toward the ¥157.50 level, an area that has proven to be significant on multiple occasions in the recent past. Market watchers anticipate some support in this region, making it unlikely that the currency will slide through this level with ease. However, if global interest rates continue to plummet, the Japanese yen may become increasingly attractive. This is due to the Bank of Japan's need to print fewer yen to maintain its yield curve control policy amid decreasing interest rates.
Conversely, a resurgence in interest rates could spell trouble for the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan has set a target of 50 basis points or lower for the country's 10-year yield. To achieve this goal, the central bank may need to intervene by purchasing bonds, which requires printing more yen. This influx of yen can flood the market, causing the currency to lose value. Such a situation occurred last year, demonstrating the potential negative effects of the Bank of Japan's intervention.
Pound Could Further Fall
As global market participants grow increasingly concerned about financial contagion, there is a chance that the Bank of Japan may receive help from unexpected sources worldwide. If this occurs, the Japanese yen could emerge as one of the year's top-performing currencies. This potential recovery would be largely due to the currency being significantly oversold in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the British pound is grappling with its own set of problems. These issues could exacerbate the currency's decline against the Japanese yen, especially if the yen gains strength through external assistance or shifts in global interest rates.
TLDR; the British pound is facing headwinds against the Japanese yen, with the possibility of the currency pair dropping further amid global interest rate uncertainty. The pound's trajectory largely depends on whether interest rates continue to fall or rise, as well as the potential influence of external factors on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Market participants should keep a close eye on these developments to navigate the complex landscape of currency trading in these uncertain times.
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