My EUR/USD signal on 2nd March was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level at $1.0636 was first reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0747 or $1.0802.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0607 or $1.0556.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I thought that level at $1.0636 looked pivotal, do I say that if we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $1.0636, that would indicate a further fall is likely?
This was a good and accurate call, as the price fell considerably lower than $1.0636 over the day.
The technical picture, despite the current market turmoil, is relatively unchanged. We are still seeing the price consolidate in the same area, but with wide swings which are quite tradable.
Markets are in a volatile mood due to the US banking crisis following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Added to this is the US CPI (inflation) data due, which could put further pressure on the Fed to hike rates if the number comes in hot – but the Fed may feel unable to do that in case it puts further pressure on a vulnerable banking sector.
The US Dollar is generally weak, and if the data as expected shows a fall to 6%, or even lower, we will likely see an upwards movement here.
I think the best approach today will be to stand aside until after the US CPI release, and trade accordingly. The Euro is quite strong, so if the data is low, there could be a good long-trade opportunity here.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release CPI (inflation) data at 12:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR.
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