During Monday's trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a slight rally, but there is still a lot of volatility in the market. The 50-Day EMA is currently at 1.0675 and has been tested, which is an indicator that many traders closely monitor. However, we are currently between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, which typically leads to increased volatility. The 1.06 level is an important area that traders have been paying attention to, but support extends all the way down to the 1.05 level, which also features the 200-Day EMA.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
- If the market were to break below the 200-Day exponential moving average, it could drop down to the 1.03 level, which was previously an important area.
- Despite the recent noisy behavior in the market, it's important to note that there has been a lot of selling pressure from the top, as seen in the recent negative candlesticks.
- If the rally were to reach the 1.08 level, it would be difficult to break out above due to significant resistance at multiple levels, including the 50-Day EMA and the 1.07 level.
As inflation remains high in the United States, the Federal Reserve is forced to remain "tighter for longer," which makes this pair a "fade the rally" situation. Ultimately, I think that is going to be the story going through spring and into summer. The European Union of course has a lot of headwinds when it comes to its economic growth, but quite frankly the biggest driver of this is going to be the Federal Reserve and the fact that it is stuck with a highly inflationary environment and has reiterated its desire to keep inflation in the United States in the 2% range. However, it’s nowhere near that right now, so therefore the US dollar should continue to be strong from time to time.
Another thing worth paying attention to would be German yields, as it does tend to be a major driver of where the Euro plays out. The US dollar in general will move in the same direction against all major currencies, so the EUR/USD pair is a great way to gauge what US dollar strength is going to be like against multiple other major currencies. At this point, I still think this remains choppy and volatile, so you should keep your position size reasonable.
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