- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has experienced some back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as the market attempts to figure out where the economy is going.
- The market has to deal with the possibility of whether or not the economy is going to grow going forward, or if we are about to hit a global recession.
- As a result, the market is trying to price in the demand for crude oil in that type of situation.
Fundamentals Factors in Focus
Additionally, there is the possibility that supply is tight enough that the market will have to price that in. Currently, the market is bouncing around in a tight consolidation area, with the $72.50 level underneath offering support, and the $82.50 level above serving as resistance.
Similarly, Brent finds itself stuck in a bit of a range, with the $77.50 level underneath offering support, and the $89 level above serving as a significant resistance barrier backed by the 200-Day exponential moving average.
Like the WTI Crude Oil market, Brent is also facing the same problems of uncertainty around demand. In the short term, it's likely that traders will have to stick to trading range-bound systems for short-term moves. It's important not to get overly aggressive in this market quite yet. However, as soon as the market breaks out of the trading range for either WTI Crude Oil or Brent, we could see a significant $10 move rather quickly.
It's important to keep in mind that central banks around the world are tightening monetary policy, which could drive down the idea of demand as several economies around the world slow down. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to global economic announcements and central bank policy decisions as a tightening monetary policy will in theory drive down the demand for crude oil as economies become more sluggish.
The WTI Crude Oil and Brent markets are experiencing uncertainty around demand, leading to a range-bound market for short-term moves. Traders should avoid getting overly aggressive and pay attention to global economic trends and central bank policy decisions that could impact demand. However, as soon as the market breaks out of the trading range, we could see a significant move. In that trade, I would expect both of these grades to move over $10 by breaking out of the range if and when we do.
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