Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Attempt a Recovery

Currently, the market appears to be attempting to recover from its oversold state, and this should be the primary interpretation of the situation. 

WTI (US Oil)

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market experienced modest gains during Wednesday's trading session, as market participants awaited the results of the FOMC meeting. The meeting's outcome, whether perceived as hawkish or dovish, will significantly impact risk appetite, which crude oil serves as a major indicator for. Not only that, but it will also be the knock-on effect from the US dollar that could have a lot to say about where crude oil goes. The correlation is rather strong between a weak dollar and strong oil and of course vice versa.

At present, the WTI Crude Oil market is trading around the $70 level. However, much of the current market activity could be classified as a "bear market rally." The 50-Day EMA is situated at the $75.55 mark, suggesting that there could be more room for upward movement. Despite this, it is more likely that rallies exhibiting signs of exhaustion will present attractive selling opportunities. The $72.50 level, which previously served as support, will be an area of particular interest.

WTI Crude Oil

Brent (UK Oil)

  • Brent markets experienced a rally during Wednesday's trading session, as the market shows signs of being oversold. However, the $77.50 level is expected to present some resistance due to "market memory."
  • As a result, any signs of exhaustion in that area are likely to attract shorting, given the prevailing negative trend.
  • This is primarily driven by widespread concerns about potential economic sluggishness worldwide. In such a scenario, it becomes difficult to be overly bullish on energy, which serves as the economy's lifeblood.

Currently, the market appears to be attempting to recover from its oversold state, and this should be the primary interpretation of the situation. Exercising patience in this market could prove beneficial, as attractive shorting opportunities may emerge above. The alternative scenario involves the market sliding lower and breaking through the $70 level, though this seems less likely at the moment. That being said, the one thing that could make that happen is if the Federal Reserve is much more hawkish than anticipated.

More likely than not, we will see a ton of volatility in the next couple of sessions, but ultimately the longer-term trend is there for a reason, not the least of which will be the fact that there have been a lot of concerns about economic growth and by extension, demand.

Brent Oil

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.