My previous BTC/USD signal on 23rd March was not triggered, as unfortunately the high price of the day never quite reached the key resistance level which I had identified at $28,846.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $27,697 or $26,687.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $28,172 or $28,846.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis last Thursday that bulls should be concerned that the price seemed unable to rise above the resistance level at $27,818. If we had gotten a couple of consecutive higher hourly closes today above that level, I thought that Bitcoin would look much more bullish.
Unfortunately, after we got those higher closes, the price sold off quite strongly, so this was a bad call.
In trading it can be helpful to pay attention when seemingly good setups fail, so this can be taken as a bearish sign, despite the strong long-term bullish trend.
The technical picture now looks less bullish and more indecisive, as we see a consolidating triangle chart pattern has formed, shown in the price chart below. Within this triangle, there is a support level at $27,697 that is currently holding up the price.
The resistance nearby just above the triangle at $28,172 also looks important.
I think the price could go either way, although a significant directional move may not happen today as it is Monday which is typically a quiet market.
If we get two consecutive higher hourly closes above $28,172 traders can take that as a signal to go long.
If we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $27,250 traders can take that as a signal to go short.
On a higher timeframe, zoomed out price chart, Bitcoin looks quite bullish due to the long-term trend. Yet a significant breakdown below this consolidating triangle pattern does look likely to trigger a deeper pullback, which could then give a dip-buying opportunity at $26,687.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.
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