Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6667 and a take-profit at 0.6780.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6575.
The AUD/USD exchange rate was little changed on Thursday morning after the spectacular Australian jobs numbers. It was trading at 0.6628, which was a few points above Wednesday’s low of 0.6590. The pair will react to the ongoing banking crisis and key economic data from the United States.
Australia jobs data
The Australian labor market is doing well, according to the Labor Department. Data published on Thursday morning revealed that the economy added over 65.4k jobs in February, after losing 11k in the previous month. This increase was much bigger than the median estimate of 48k.
Additional data showed that the participation rate rose slightly to 66.6% while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. This jobless rate is the lowest it has been in decades. It also signals that the labor shortage that has been going on will continue. Also, it means that the rising demand will make it tough for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to fight inflation.
The main catalyst for the AUD/USD pair is the ongoing banking crisis in key countries like the United States and Switzerland. On Wednesday, global stocks, including those from Australia dropped sharply as concerns about Credit Suisse spread.
In a Bloomberg interview, the biggest Credit Suisse shareholder warned that his company would not provide additional capital for the bank. This was notable since most analysts believe that the bank will need additional capital as it implements its turnaround strategy.
To contain the situation, Credit Suisse received a bailout from the Swiss government. The central bank will give it access to over $50 billion, which is much higher than the company’s market cap of just $9.5 billion.
The next important mover of the AUD/USD pair will be the upcoming economic data from the United States. On Thursday, the key data to watch will be the latest US building permits and housing starts. The US will also publish the jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD pair moved sideways after the latest Australian jobs numbers. It was trading at 0.6630, which was slightly below this week’s high of 0.6716. The pair remains slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the descending trendline shown in blue. At the same time, the MACD has moved slightly below the neutral point.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as traders target the key support at 0.6568, the lowest level this month.
Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s our selection of the best Forex brokers in Australia worth looking at.