- The USD/CHF rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to recover against the Swiss franc.
- That being said, the pair has been in a downward trend for a while, and the US dollar has been beaten on by quite a few traders out there as rates continue to drop in the futures market.
- With this being the case, I think you get a situation where we are getting close to a major bottom, and therefore we are either going to see a huge shift in the US dollar across the Forex world, or we could get a bounce.
This pair has a lot of support right around the 0.91 level, and the 0.90 level. There is a lot to chew through to truly break down, so I think you’ve got to see how the Non-Farm Payroll reaction is because quite frankly we are getting close to having to make some type of decision.
Choppiness Ahead
The Swiss franc does have the bonus of Switzerland offering a positive yield now, but it is still far below the US dollar. A lot of this comes down to future expectations, as people are betting that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut rates. In fact, they believe that there will eventually be 50 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year after one or 2 rate hikes. That’s utter nonsense if you listen to the Federal Reserve, but at the end of the day the market is willing to fight the Fed and has been winning for a while.
The size of the candlestick on Thursday is bullish, but it’s hardly threatening compared to the downtrend. With this, I think we probably have a little bit of a rally ahead, but more likely than not we will continue to see downward pressure. However, if we were to break above the 0.93 level, it allows the market to take off to the upside, and at that point, I think we would have a much deeper recovery. I’m not necessarily calling for that, but it is a possibility if we get a little bit of momentum. All things being equal, it’s likely that you will see a lot of choppy volatility, but nowhere to be by the end of the day as is usual for NFP.
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