- The USD/CHF pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday, only to turn around and show signs of life again.
- By doing so, it looks as if we are trying to build some type of bigger base that we can jump to the upside.
- The 50-Day EMA above is something that you need to pay close attention to, near the 0.93 level.
Breaking above that 0.93 level then opens up the 0.94 level, and possibly an attack on the 200-Day EMA. Anything above that opens up the possibility of a longer-term uptrend, perhaps going all the way to the parity level. The parity level course is an area that suggests a bit of a magnet, as we have seen so much in the way of price action there previously. When you look at the longer-term chart, you can even make an argument that we are at the bottom of a huge range, and it is probably only a matter of time before we see a balance.
50-Day EMA Will be a Barrier
The 0.90 level underneath is a massive support level, and therefore needs to be paid close attention to. If we were to somehow turn around and drop down below there, the US dollar would get eviscerated. That being said, I think it’s obvious that the market continues to see a lot of support just below, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we take off. In fact, the US dollar is showing signals that it wants to strengthen across the world against multiple currencies, and therefore I think it makes sense of the Swiss franc would also get hammered. After all, the Swiss franc offers very little in the way of interest, and that of course is something that will drive currency pairs quite drastically. Ultimately, I think in this situation, we have to put our positions on in small increments, and then build up as time goes on.
The fact that we formed a hammer on Thursday does suggest that we have further to go, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to have an easy path higher. The 50-Day EMA will obviously be the first barrier, but I think it is simply going to be a bump along the road higher.
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