The USD/ZAR is trading near the 17.12700 mark as of this writing and the currency pair continues to display a rather nervous volatile range. A lack of confidence regarding the South African economic outlook, because of its ongoing electricity supply issues known as ‘load shedding’ remains a focal point for financial houses as they trade the USD/ZAR.
Day traders who have little interest in the domestic affairs of South Africa and want to remain technical traders should at least consider the situation which is affecting behavioral sentiment in the USD/ZAR. Trading conditions continue to test support and resistance levels, but the USD/ZAR is not correlating to the broad Forex market in lockstep and this may cause some difficulty for speculators who are trying to gain ‘a feel’ for the USD/ZAR while comparing it to global conditions.
Last Week’s U.S Data didn’t Impact the USD/ZAR for Long
The USD/ZAR reached a high of nearly 17.37360 on Thursday of last week. This followed a low of nearly 16.88850 on Wednesday after the U.S Retail Sales figures were published. The impact of the U.S. spending data being weaker than expected from the U.S. caused the USD/ZAR to sell off. However, it soon became apparent nervous considerations still lingered within the minds of financial institutions that trade the USD/ZAR because of economic concerns in South Africa.
The ability of the USD/ZAR to reverse higher swiftly late last week, and essentially maintain its value above 17.00000 rather comfortably acts as a warning sign for speculators. This morning’s upwards price action after attaining a low of nearly 17.06500 on the opening following the weekend, is also a rather intriguing signal about potential nervousness within the USD/ZAR remaining. The low this morning did not break Thursday’s depth around 17.04950.
Short-Term Trading Conditions may see Increased Volatility in the USD/ZAR
- There will be plenty of U.S. data this week including growth and inflation numbers, but domestic issues in South Africa will keep the USD/ZAR within fragile trading conditions also.
- Short-term traders should use narrow take profit and stop loss orders to protect against volatility today and tomorrow. Financial houses seemingly still are looking for equilibrium in the USD/ZAR and its trading range remains potentially dangerous.
Today and tomorrow traders may be tempted to be buyers of the USD/ZAR when it challenges perceived support ratios, but the same speculators may also bet on downturns when resistance levels are thought to be too high. The near term is likely to produce choppy conditions and when U.S. data gets released this week the USD/ZAR will be tricky. Betting on downside price action may be tempting in the USD/ZAR taking into consideration the broad Forex market, but realistic targets should be used when wagering that is not overly ambitious.
USD/ZAR Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 17.14950
Current Support: 17.06400
High Target: 17.26030
Low Target: 17.02010
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