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USD/TRY Forecast: Stability of the Lira Ahead of the Interest Rate Decision

Currently, the dollar against the pound is trading above the support levels of 18.70, 18.60, and 18.53, respectively. 

Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

The risk is 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 18.60 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 18.45 support level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 19.00.

Best selling entry points

  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 19.00 level.
  • The best points to place a stop loss close the highest levels of 19.15.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 18.75.

The price of the TRY/USD stabilized during early trading this morning, as investors await the Turkish Central Bank's decision on the expected interest rate during afternoon trading. Expectations indicate that the interest rate will be fixed at 9%, after the success of the Turkish Central Bank in reducing interest rates to the single digits, as desired by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who effectively controls the decisions of the Central Bank.

Turkey had witnessed a series of interest rate cuts over the last months over the past year after they had been fixed for nearly a year. Where the interest rate was cut from 14% levels to the current levels at 9%. Most of the expectations of fixing the interest rate are due to the improvement in the country's economy, including the inflation rate, which recorded a significant decline during last December, after it recorded approximately 64%, compared to its highest level ever, at 85% during the previous month. The Turkish president is following a new economic theory based on lowering the interest rate to encourage borrowing with the aim of investing and boosting production.

USD/TRY Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the trading of the USD/TRY recorded stability, with almost no changes, during today's early trading. Where the pair witnessed slight fluctuations near its all-time highs, the pair maintained its trading within the levels of the bullish channel on today's time frame, which reflects the upward movement of the pair, albeit at a slow pace.

At the same time, the USD/TRY is trading above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily time frame as well as on the four-hour time frame, in a sign of the general bullish trend for the pair. Currently, the dollar against the pound is trading above the support levels of 18.70, 18.60, and 18.53, respectively. On the other hand, the pair is trading below the resistance levels at 18.83 and 18.86, which represents the highest price for the pair ever, and the pair is also trading below the psychological resistance levels at 19.00. Any drop in the pair represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

USD/TRY

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Amir Issa
About Amir Issa
Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.

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