The USD/JPY is trading near the 128.250 ratios as of this writing, this after challenging the 127.750 mark earlier this morning. The reversal higher since touching a low this morning should not scare speculators who continue to have bearish perspectives of the USD/JPY. The move higher since touching the lower depths can be considered a healthy sign of natural Forex market action.
Yesterday’s lowest depth of nearly 127.575 which was seen momentarily may be a sign that lower values will be challenged again by the USD/JPY relatively soon. The trend of the USD/JPY has been within a bearish stance since the 21st of October when the currency pair traded above the 151.875 ratio momentarily. The high for the USD/JPY was nearly 131.625 yesterday when the currency pair saw a massive amount of speculative buying as financial houses likely bet on the wrong side of the speculated U.S Retail Sales numbers.
USD/JPY Reacted to Bank of Japan and Poor Retail Sales Data from the U.S
Earlier this week the USD/JPY reacted to the Bank of Japan’s refusal to change its interest rate policy, some analysts seemed to be sure the BoJ would show signs of wanting to raise Japan’s borrowing costs, but this did not happen. Additionally, yesterday’s Retail Sales figures from the U.S. showed consumers in the States remained sluggish regarding their spending and this can be interpreted as a recessionary signal.
Less spending by consumers in the U.S. may give the Federal Reserve another reason to become less aggressive about its interest rate policy. The USD/JPY exhibited a powerful surge lower when the Retail Sales figures were published which wiped out bets on increased Retail Sales numbers causing a stronger USD. Instead, the bolt of selling that ensued likely killed off the notion of a strong reversal higher in the USD/JPY being able to be sustained in the near term.
The USD/JPY Trend Lower should be Considered and Potentially Acted Upon
- On Monday of this week, the USD/JPY dropped to nearly 127.275. While the USD/JPY is trading above this ratio now, the strong reversals higher in the currency pair may run out of power in the near term.
- If the USD/JPY can break below the 128.100 short-term and start to sustain values below, this may be a signal the 128.000 ratio will be challenged again.
The near term will continue to produce quick price action in the USD/JPY. If a trader wants to pursue a selling position this might prove worthwhile, but strong risk management as always is urged. Traders should not get overly ambitious, but if the USD/JPY can be sold on slight reversals higher which flirt with resistance near the 128.300 to 128.400 values, this may prove an intriguing speculative bet.
Lower mid-term price momentum in the USD/JPY has been strong. Yes, reversals higher have sometimes been solid, but yesterday’s buying surge proved to be wrong and the downward track of the currency pair remains attractive near-term.
USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 128.480
Current Support: 127.900
High Target: 129.100
Low Target: 127.390
Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best Forex brokers worth trading with.