TRY/USD Forecast: Finance Minister Defends the Decline of the Lira

It is noteworthy that the arguments put forward by the Turkish minister are the same on which the Turkish president built his new economic plans, which are based on reducing the interest rate to increase production.

Today's recommendation on the lira TRY/USD

The risk is 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 18.70 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the support level at 18.45.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 19.00.

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 19.00 level.
  • The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 19.15.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 18.75.

The TRY/USD was stable during morning trading today, Wednesday. Recently, reports published the statements of the Turkish Minister of Finance, Noureddine Nabatai, who defended the current lira price, which recorded strong declines compared to previous years.

Where the Turkish official believes that the rise in the value of the lira will represent a threat to Turkish industry and exports, which may negatively affect unemployment levels in the country. Noureddine Nabatai explained that if the Turkish currency becomes a currency of value, this will be reflected in industrialization, as the chances of its slowdown will increase, and thus unemployment rates will rise.”

The minister also added that with the rise of the lira, Turkish imports will become larger, and thus produced in the country will become useless. He concluded his statements that there is an ideal value for the price of the lira that achieves a balance between increased production and the collapse of the currency value. It is noteworthy that the arguments put forward by the Turkish minister are the same on which the Turkish president built his new economic plans, which are based on reducing the interest rate to increase production.

The Turkish lira witnessed large levels of decline over several years after reaching its highest levels against the dollar in 2013. The lira fell by 44% against the dollar in 2021 and 30% in 2022. Before settling with almost no movement since last October.

TRY/USD Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the trading of the dollar pair against the Turkish lira stabilized on slight declines near its all-time highs. The pair continued trading within the bullish channel levels in today's time frame, which reflects the upward movement of the pair, albeit at a slow pace. At the same time, the dollar pair against the lira is trading above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily time frame as well as on the four-hour time frame, in a sign of the general bullish trend for the pair.

Currently, the USD/TRY is trading above the support levels of 18.70, 18.60, and 18.53, respectively. On the other hand, the pair is trading below the resistance levels at 18.83 and 18.86, which represents the highest price for the pair ever, and the pair is also trading below the psychological resistance levels at 19.00. Any drop in the pair represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

USD/TRY

Amir Issa
Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.

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