- The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, and as we hover around the 200-Day EMA, and the 33,000 level.
- This is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I do think that we have a situation where we are getting ready to see a bigger move.
- After all, the jobs number on Friday will have a lot of people looking at this through the prism of whether the Federal Reserve will have to continue to tighten monetary policy, or if there’s some hope of them slowing down.
Looking at the chart, it’s also worth noting that the market is currently trading not only just above the 200-Day EMA, but also the 50-Day EMA sets just above there. This is an area that should cause a lot of noise, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where we will see a big move. You can see on the chart that I have a rectangle drawn out, and the 33,500 level seems to be offering resistance, while the 32,500 level seems to be offering support. Essentially, we are trading in a 1000-point range.
Market Players Hesitate
The overall attitude that this market has been one of hesitation over the last couple of weeks, as liquidity had disappeared. After all, the market has been going through the holidays, and most traders have been away from their desks. I think at this point, a lot of this will come down to the idea of whether the Federal Reserve sees enough heat in the jobs number to continue to be tight, with the ADP employment figures coming out on Thursday suggesting that may very well be the case. I do think that by the time we get through the end of the week, we may have a little bit more in the way of clarity as to where we are going longer term, and a breakout of this box that I have drawn on the chart could lead to a nice swing trade.
If we do end up staying within the rectangle, then I think we have more work to do. We are within a few days of a bigger move, and I plan on taking advantage of it.
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