- The NZD/USD initially dipped a bit during the trading session on Friday, as the jobs number came out hotter than anticipated.
- Because of this, the market started buying the US dollar in general.
- But now it’s likely we continue to see the US dollar getting sold off, as the market is still trying to come up with plenty of reasons to think that the Federal Reserve is going to give up its tight monetary policy.
The market continues to be overbought, and it does look as if the 0.64 level is offering just a little bit of resistance. Between there and 0.65, the market is likely to continue to see a little bit of resistance, in the fact that we are stretched does worry me a little bit instead of jumping into by the New Zealand dollar and ever for us. Furthermore, you need to pay close attention to the interest rate situation in the United States, since the US dollar is moving in tandem with rates on the 10-year period
New Zealand Dollar is Favored
If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Friday session, I do think that the 200-Day EMA comes into the picture as a potential support level. Breaking down below there then opens the possibility of a move down to the 0.62 level. This is a situation where we have gotten a little overdone, so I think it’s only a matter of time before we see some type of pullback to at least stabilize the situation and replenish the move, but as we head toward the Federal Reserve meeting in December, we may see people start to worry about what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say.
Speaking of Jerome's panel, the market continues to see him speak in circles, as he had done this week. Ultimately, the market is likely to see more volatility based on the fact that he has no idea how to handle a press conference. Because of this, I would anticipate that there is a possibility that volatility will pick up. This will be even more so because the markets will lose a lot of volumes as we head toward the end of the year. Nonetheless, it does look like the New Zealand dollar is favored.
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