Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) advanced during their early trading on Wednesday, achieving daily gains up to the moment of writing this report by 3.75%. It settled at $5.528 per million British thermal units, after declining strongly during yesterday’s trading and for the third day in a row, by -7.92%.
Natural gas futures in the United States fell yesterday by about 9%, to their lowest level in seven weeks. This happened due to expectations that the weather will become warmer than usual in late December and early January.
This drop in prices came despite expectations of cooler weather and higher demand for heating over the coming week than previously expected.
Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains around when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. Traders said Freeport is likely to use the gas to fuel an on-site power station, but it could also be a sign that the facility is close to restarting.
Whenever Freeport returns, the US demand for gas will increase, as the plant can convert about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas into liquefied natural gas for export. This is about 2% of the daily production of the United States.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that no European country appeared to be conducting a proper investigation into the series of explosions that sabotaged Nord Stream gas pipelines in September.
"After the explosions in Nord Stream - which it seems that no one in the European Union will objectively investigate - Russia stopped gas transportation through the northern routes," said Lavrov.
Russia has blamed Britain for the bombings - allegations rejected by London - while investigators in Sweden and Denmark have said it was a deliberate result of sabotage. However, the possible perpetrators were not named.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Technically, natural gas found some support this morning, after it relied on the pivotal 5.310, support level. It gave it some positive momentum to try to compensate for part of its previous losses, in light of the dominance of the bearish corrective trend in the short term along a slope line, as shown on the chart.
The graph also showed continued negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period, in addition to the presence of negative signals in the relative strength indicators, after reaching highly overbought areas.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in natural gas during its upcoming trading, especially if it breaks the 5.310 support, to then target the 4.200 support level.
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