- The DAX initially dipped a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as the market looks as if it is getting a little bit “tired.”
- I also believe that this is a market that will continue to threaten a major breakout, as people are starting to bet on monetary policy easing around the world.
- Because of this, it’s probably worth noting that the market has been very choppy and noisy as of late, as it looks like there is a bit of confusion now.
The €14,500 level seems to be rather resistant to buying pressure, so at this point, it’ll be interesting to see whether we can take that out. If we can, then the market is likely to investigate the €14,800 level, followed by the €15,000 level. On the downside, we have the €14,100 level, denoted by a short yellow line on the chart, which is offering a little bit of support. If we can break down below there, then it’s likely that the DAX starts to unwind significantly, perhaps reaching down to the 50-Day EMA, colored in red on the chart.
Market Could Struggle
All things being equal, should also be noted that the market had a massive run-up to these levels, and therefore it might be a little overbought in the short term. If that is in fact going to be the case, then it should be looked at through the prism of digesting this frothy market. On the other hand, if we cannot get above the €14,500 level, it might be a scenario where we see a lot of trouble eventually. After all, there are plenty of things out there to have the markets concerned now, so it’s not exactly out of the realm of possibility that we see a market struggle.
With that being the case, I think we’ve got a situation where you are going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior and difficulty getting some type of grip as we head into the very end of the year, and of course the all-important ECB meeting next week on Thursday. With that being the case, expect choppiness, as we try to build up enough momentum to finally break out. If we do not, then I anticipate a significant pullback.
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