Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 16,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 16,800 and a take-profit at 15,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 18,000.
The BTC/USD continued its consolidation as global risks continued rising. Bitcoin was trading at $17,000, where it has been in the past few days. This price was a few points below the weekend high of 17,470.
Global risks rise
Bitcoin has moved sideways in the past few days amid rising risks that pushed the US dollar and the VIX index rose. The US dollar index rose by 0.25% to $105.51, which was higher than this week’s low of $104.30. At the same time, the closely watched VIX index rose by 7% to $22.5. VIX is an important tool that is used to measure the amount of volatility in the market.
Meanwhile, American stocks continued their significant decline. The Dow Jones dropped by 467 points while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices crashed by more than 1.78%. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to have a close correlation with American stocks.
Bitcoin’s fear and greed index dropped to the fear level as concerns about the crypto industry continued. Investors are concerned about Silvergate, which is a well-known bank for cryptocurrency companies. In a letter, Senators John Kennedy, Elizabeth Warren, and Roger Marshall asked the company for answers for its role in the collapse of FTX.
Precisely, the bipartisan team of senators asked about the payments it facilitated between FTX and Alameda Research. FTX has been accused of lending customer funds to Alameda Research. Some of the questions the senators want to know are on the company’s stress test results and whether the bank flagged suspicious movements of funds between FTX and Alameda.
The BTC/USD pair is also being pressured by the rising recession risks in the US. Data in the bond market shows that the yield curve has inverted to the lowest level in years.
BTC/USD forecast
The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days. It remains above the important support at 15,787, the lowest point this year. The pair is consolidating at the 25-day moving average while the Bollinger Band indicator has narrowed.
It has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern while the RSI has stalled at 50. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Wednesday as investors wait for the next catalyst. A bullish breakout to 18,000 cannot be ruled out.
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