Previous BTC/USD Signal
My previous Bitcoin signal on 22nd December was not triggered as none of the key support and resistance levels identified were reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $16,233 or $15,945.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $16,949, $17,089, $17,271, or $17,544.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis on 22nd December that the price of BTC/USD was being suppressed by the key resistance level at $16,949. As there were no support levels below the price until $16,233, I was looking for a short trade and to take profit at that lower support level.
This trade opportunity did not set up that day, but it remained a good call as the resistance at $16,949 has continued to hold and suppress the price, giving a chance to enter a short trade which would now be in profit as the price is falling from there.
We have a valid long-term bearish trend in Bitcoin, and short-term bearish momentum in the direction of that trend, which is always a powerful combination.
Bears clearly have the upper hand, both in Bitcoin and in the crypto market in general, due to general risk-off sentiment expanding in addition to the effects of FTX and other crypto scandals which have recently been plaguing the industry.
Although the outlook is clearly bearish, and the price may well continue to fall as low as the nearest support level at $16,233, it seems as if we will not get a trade entry opportunity today. However, if the price returns to $16,949 and firmly rejects that level again, it could be a great opportunity for a fresh short trade entry for anyone currently out of the market, with $16,233 as a take profit target.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.
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