AUD/USD Forex Signal: Retreat Stalls But a Drop to 66 Cents Likely

On the positive side, it appears that China is taking measures to stabilize the economy. 

Bearish view

  • Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6600.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6783.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 0.6783 and a take-profit at 0.6900.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6680.

The AUD/USD price remained under intense pressure amid the rising concerns about the Australian and Chinese economies. It rose slightly to 0.6725, which was lower than this week’s high of 0.6860. This price is much higher than November’s low of 0.6175.

Concerns about Australia and China economies

The Australian dollar wavered after the latest GDP data. According to the bureau of statistics, the economy expanded by 0.6% in the third quarter after growing by 0.9% in Q2. This increase was lower than the median estimate of 0.7%. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 5.9%. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting the economy to expand by 6.2%.

Capital expenditure dropped by 0.2% in Q3 while final consumption rose by 0.8%. These numbers came on the same day that China published worrying trade numbers. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s exports crashed by 8.7% while imports dropped by 10.6%. The trade surplus narrowed to about $69.85 billion.

On the positive side, it appears that China is taking measures to stabilize the economy. This week, officials continued winding down some of the most restrictive zero-Covid strategies. For example, asymptomatic Covid patients will now be allowed to recuperate at home. Further, people will no longer need a Covid test to visit public places.

Australia’s GDP data came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded its two-day meeting. In it, the officials decided to hike interest rates by 25 basis points and pointed out that they will continue rising in the coming months.

There will be no major catalyst for the AUD/USD pair on Thursday. The only key data to watch will be the latest American jobless claims numbers. These numbers will not have a major impact on the pair.

AUD/USD forecast

The 4H chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a tight range in the past few days. At the current level of 0.6741, the pair is below this month’s high of 0.6850. It is also below the ascending trendline shown in green and is at the 50-day moving average.

The Awesome Oscillator moved below the neutral point while the Stochastic Oscillator pointed upwards. The pair will likely resume the bearish trend as sellers target the important support level at 0.6600.

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Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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