- The AUD/USD rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to break above the 200-Day EMA before turning around and showing signs of hesitation.
- Ultimately, this looks like a market that is going to continue to be very noisy, and what the jobs number on Friday it’s very likely that noise will only continue.
- At this point, it looks like the US dollars are on the verge of falling rather hard against multiple currencies, but then again, the jobs number could turn things right back around.
With, you are probably better off waiting until the weekly close, but right now it certainly looks as if we are going to struggle to get above here. If we do get above the 200-Day EMA substantially on a daily close, then we could continue to see a much bigger move to the upside. On the other hand, if we cannot maintain a move above there, then it’s likely that the market will pull back into the box that I have drawn on the chart. In that scenario, we would be looking at potential consolidation more than anything else, as we have almost certainly seen quite a bit of effort in the market expended over the last couple of days.
Waiting for the Job Numbers
Keep in mind that the 200-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to so that of course makes quite a bit of sense that we would see markets continue to struggle. If we break above that easily, then it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher. This will probably have to do with the overall attitude to the US dollar more than anything else, which has seen a massive move lower.
However, the jobs number comes out stronger than anticipated, which could turn this market right back around, and I think that’s essentially what we will be waiting on. Once we get through the week, we could see a much bigger move. On the downside, the 50-Day EMA hangs around the 0.66 level and is starting to rise. Anything below there opens the floodgates of the much lower pricing, and it would show a significant failure of the Aussie dollar itself. Because of this, at that point, I would become very aggressive to the downside.
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